Bayesian model averaging for harmful algal bloom prediction

Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) are a worldwide problem that have been increasing in frequency and extent over the past several decades. HABs severely damage aquatic ecosystems by destroying benthic habitat, reducing invertebrate and fish populations and affecting larger species such as dugong that rely on seagrasses for food. Few statistical models for predicting HAB occurrences have been developed, and in common with most predictive models in ecology, those that have been developed do not fully account for uncertainties in parameters and model structure. This makes management decisions based on these predictions more risky than might be supposed. We used a probit time series model and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to predict occurrences of blooms of Lyngbya majuscula, a toxic cyanophyte, in Deception Bay, Queensland, Australia. We found a suite of useful predictors for HAB occurrence, with Temperature figuring prominently in models with the majority of posterior support, and a model consisting of the single covariate average monthly minimum temperature showed by far the greatest posterior support. A comparison of alternative model averaging strategies was made with one strategy using the full posterior distribution and a simpler approach that utilised the majority of the posterior distribution for predictions but with vastly fewer models. Both BMA approaches showed excellent predictive performance with little difference in their predictive capacity. Applications of BMA are still rare in ecology, particularly in management settings. This study demonstrates the power of BMA as an important management tool that is capable of high predictive performance while fully accounting for both parameter and model uncertainty.

Harmful algal bloom management and response: assessment and plan

This report, "Harmful Algal Bloom Management and Response: Assessment and Plan" reviews and evaluates Harmful Algal Bloom (HAB) management and response efforts, identifies current prevention, control, and mitigation programs for HABs, and presents an innovative research, event response, and infrastructure development plan for advancing the response to HABs. In December 2004, Congress enacted and the President signed into law the Harmful Algal Bloom and Hypoxia Amendments Act of 2004, (HABHRCA 2004). The reauthorization of HABHRCA acknowledged that HABs are one of the most scientifically complex and economically damaging coastal issues challenging our ability to safeguard the health of our Nation’s coastal ecosystems. The Administration further recognized the importance of HABs as a high priority national issue by specifically calling for the implementation of HABHRCA in the President’s U.S. Ocean Action Plan. HABHRCA 2004 requires four reports to assess and recommend research programs on HABs in U.S. waters. This document comprises two linked reports specifically aimed at improving HAB management and response: the Prediction and Response Report and the follow-up plan, the National Scientific Research, Development, Demonstration, and Technology Transfer (RDDTT) Plan on Reducing Impacts from Harmful Algal Blooms. This document was prepared by the Interagency Working Group on Harmful Algal Blooms, Hypoxia, and Human Health, which was chartered through the Joint Subcommittee on Ocean Science and Technology of the National Science and Technology Council and the Interagency Committee on Ocean Science and Resource Management Integration. This report complements and expands upon HAB-related priorities identified in Charting the Course for Ocean Science in the United States for the Next Decade: An Ocean Research Priorities Plan and Implementation Strategy, recently released by the Joint Subcommittee on Ocean Science and Technology. It draws from the contributions of numerous experts and stakeholders from federal, state, and local governments, academia, industry, and non-governmental organizations through direct contributions, previous reports and planning efforts, a public comment period, and a workshop convened to develop strategies for a HAB management and response plan. Given the importance of the Nation’s coastal ocean, estuaries, and inland waters to our quality of life, our culture, and the economy, it is imperative that we move forward to better understand and mitigate the impacts of HABs which threaten all of our coasts and inland waters. This report is an effort to assess the extent of federal, state and local efforts to predict and respond to HAB events and to identify opportunities for charting a way forward.

Food Consumption by In Situ Pen-Cultured Planktivorous Fishes and Effects on an Algal Bloom in Lake Taihu, China

Silver carp (Hypophthalmichthys molitrix) and bighead carp (Aristichthys nobilis) were used as a new pen-cultureed biomanipulation technique to control algal blooms in Meiliang Bay of Lake Taihu. In order to evaluate the capacity of these two fishes to decrease algal blooms, diel feeding samplings were carried out in May (without algal blooms) and September (with algal blooms) in 2005. Based on estimated food consumption by the Elliott-Persson model, silver carp increased daily food consumption from 2.07 g dry weight per 100 g wet body weight in May before the outbreak of algal blooms to 4.98 g dry weight per 100 g wet body weight in September during algal blooms outbreak. However, no obvious variation of food consumption was observed in bighead carp during the study period. This species 1.88 and 1.54 g dry weight of plankton per 100 g wet body weight in May and September, respectively. Silver carp had a higher feeding capacity for plankton than bighead carp. Biotic factors (i.e., fish size and conspecific competition with natural species in the lake) may affect the feeding behaviors of both carps as well as seasonal variation of plankton communities in the pen.

The dominant Ulva strain of the 2008 green algal bloom in the Yellow Sea was not detected in the coastal waters of Qingdao in the following winter

The region of Qingdao, China, experienced the world's largest green tide from May to July 2008. More than one million tons of fresh algal biomass of the green alga Ulva prolifera was harvested, while more was suspected to have sunk to the bottom. The original source of this seaweed was suspected to be from the south as revealed by satellite images. The floating biomass drifted with the water current northward and flourished in nearshore waters around Qingdao. However, direct biological evidence for "seed" source is lacking. It is still unclear whether this alga could survive the Qingdao local coastal environment and pose future danger of potential blooming. Systematic and seasonal sampling of waters in the intertidal zone at six collection sites along the Qingdao coast was conducted from December 2008 to April 2009. Forty-eight water samples were analyzed. From these, nine different morphotypes of Ulva were grown in the laboratory under standard temperature and light regimes. Growth of Ulva was observed in all water samples. However, molecular phylogenetic analyses revealed that the dominant U. prolifera strain of the 2008 bloom was absent in all the water-derived cultures during the sampling period. These results provide evidence that the dominant bloom-forming alga was unlikely able to survive the coastal waters (the minimal surface water temperature in February is 2A degrees C) in winter conditions in Qingdao, even though all the sampling locations were heavily covered by this alga in June 2008.

A preliminary study on the mechanism of harmful algal bloom mitigation by use of sophorolipid treatment

in order to investigate a new method of mitigating the deleterious effect of harmful algal blooms (HABs), the inhibition of the glycolipid biosurfactant sophorolipid on three common harmful algae Alexandrium tamarense, Heterosigma akashiwo and Cochlodinium polykrikoides was studied. The optimum preparation condition for sophorolipid, the inhibition capability of sophorolipid and the interaction mechanism of sophorolipid on the three algal species were investigated. Results showed that sophorolipid prepared by extraction with ethyl acetate exhibited the most prominent inhibition effect and that storage time of one year had little influence on the inhibition effect of sophorolipid. The optimum concentration of 10-20 mg/l sophorolipid inhibited the motility of about 90% of the tested harmful algal cells without recovery. Investigation of the algicidal process revealed that sophorolipid induced ecdysis of A. tamarense, quick lysis of H. akashiwo and swelling of C. polykrikoides in a relatively short time. Investigation of the nucleotides showed that more than 15% of the nucleotides were released from the cytoplasm under the effect of 10-20 mg/l sophorolipid, indicating the irreversible damage on the cellular membrane, which resulted in the disintegration of the harmful algal cells. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Environmental and health effects associated with Harmful Algal Bloom and marine algal toxins in China

The frequency and scale of Harmful Algal Bloom (HAB) and marine algal toxin incidents have been increasing and spreading in the past two decades, causing damages to the marine environment and threatening human life through contaminated seafood. To better understand the effect of HAB and marine algal toxins on marine environment and human health in China, this paper overviews HAB occurrence and marine algal toxin incidents, as well as their environmental and health effects in this country. HAB has been increasing rapidly along the Chinese coast since the 1970s, and at least 512 documented HAB events have occurred from 1952 to 2002 in the Chinese mainland. It has been found that PSP and DSP toxins are distributed widely along both the northern and southern Chinese coasts. The HAB and marine algal toxin events during the 1990s in China were summarized, showing that the HAB and algal toxins resulted in great damages to local fisheries, marine culture, quality of marine environment, and human health. Therefore, to protect the coastal environment and human health, attention to HAB and marine algal toxins is urgently needed from the environmental and epidemiological view.

Vulnerability of coastal ecosystems to changes in harmful algal bloom distribution in response to climate change: projections based on model analysis

Harmful algal blooms (HABs), those proliferations of algae that can cause fish kills, contaminate seafood with toxins, form unsightly scums, or detrimentally alter ecosystem function have been increasing in frequency, magnitude, and duration worldwide. Here, using a global modeling approach, we show, for three regions of the globe, the potential effects of nutrient loading and climate change for two HAB genera, pelagic Prorocentrum and Karenia, each with differing physiological characteristics for growth. The projections (end of century, 2090-2100) are based on climate change resulting from the A1B scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Institut Pierre Simon Laplace Climate Model (IPCC, IPSL-CM4), applied in a coupled oceanographic-biogeochemical model, combined with a suite of assumed physiological 'rules' for genera-specific bloom development. Based on these models, an expansion in area and/or number of months annually conducive to development of these HABs along the NW European Shelf-Baltic Sea system and NE Asia was projected for both HAB genera, but no expansion (Prorocentrum spp.), or actual contraction in area and months conducive for blooms (Karenia spp.), was projected in the SE Asian domain. The implications of these projections, especially for Northern Europe, are shifts in vulnerability of coastal systems to HAB events, increased regional HAB impacts to aquaculture, increased risks to human health and ecosystems, and economic consequences of these events due to losses to fisheries and ecosystem services.